Harry Enten, CNN’s senior data analyst has a great saying: “I trust no living human, but I do trust the polls.”
We are in the midst of one of the most anticipated presidential elections in our nation’s great history, pitting incumbent President Joe Biden against former President Donald Trump. Historically speaking, this is the first presidential election rematch since 1956, when Dwight Eisenhower and Adlai Stevenson squared off for a rematch.
“Just The Facts” will be my way of presenting this polling data in a plain and straightforward manner in order to get uninhibited insight leading up to November’s election day and the race to 270 electoral college votes. All data will be taken from the most up-to-date polls and FiveThirtyEight tends to be the best. Please keep in mind, this is just polling data.
In 2020, 155,508,985 ballots were cast and only 76,514 votes truly decided the outcome, as Biden carried battleground states Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. The popular vote and national polling are irrelevant in presidential elections. Electoral votes, state by state, determine the winner. There has also been a change in the dispersal of electoral college votes from the 2020 census. Based on 2020 results, Republicans have added four votes and would have had 236 and Democrats have lost four and would have had 302, meaning that 76,514 number shrunk to 42,918, as Nevada is no longer needed to gain the magical 270.
“The Big Three” for 2024 to me are Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia. Those three states comprise that 42,918 number based on 2020 results. Biden carried Wisconsin by 20,682 votes (.6%). Current Wisconsin polling has Biden ahead by .2%.
Also please keep in mind, these are two of the most unlikeable political figures in American history as Biden carries a 56% disapproval rating just ahead of Trump at 53.3%. Be sure to check back, I will present “Just the Facts,” looking at additional battleground states.
Robb McCoy is a 20-year veteran of teaching civics and history at Norton High School who loves elections, but hates politics.
