The historic debate of June 25, pitting a former president against a sitting president for the first time in American history, has provided some noteworthy shakeup in the polls, notably in the “Big Three.” President Biden’s razor-thin lead last week in 538’s polling averages in Wisconsin (.2%) has evaporated and now former President Trump holds a 1.7% polling average lead to carry the states prized 10 electoral college votes.
In 2020, Biden won Arizona’s 11 electors by 10,457 votes, or .4%, and Georgia’s 16 electors by 11,779 votes, or .3%. Just 22,236 votes and under 1% decided a momentous 27-vote shift in the electoral college results. Post debate polling averages see Trump with a 5.7% lead in Arizona, with as high as an 11% lead in some individual polls. In Georgia, things appear to be even better for Trump as he holds a 7.2% polling average lead, with some individual polls seeing a 10% lead.
Two “rust belt” states, Pennsylvania and Michigan, both carried by Biden in 2020 and have seen some striking shifts post-debate. Biden carried Michigan in 2020 and their 16 electors at the time with 154,188 votes or a 2.8% victory. Pre-debate, Biden held a razor slim .3% polling average lead in Michigan which has now shifted to a 2.5% lead for Trump to carry their now 15 electors. In Pennsylvania, 2020 saw Biden secure the Keystone State’s then 20 electors with an 81,660 vote or 1.2% win. Pre-debate had Trump with a narrow .5% polling average lead, which has now risen to a 2.4% lead to carry the now 19 electoral college votes. Of note, the margin of error for polls is anywhere from 2%-5%, so the majority of these polls fell well within that margin — meaning this election is going to be a grind to the end.
Interestingly enough, these two men do actually have something in common. Both of them saw a rise in their unlikeability numbers this past week as Biden’s disapproval rating grew 1.1% to 57.1% just ahead of Trump’s .2% increase to sit at 53.5%. Please be cognizant that these two candidates remain two of the most unlikeable political figures in American history. Please check back next week as I will keep an eye on all these polls and report back with “Just The Facts.”
Robb McCoy is a 20-year veteran of teaching civics and history at Norton High School who loves elections, but hates politics.
